Sugar exports to dominate trade conference

SYDNEY/NEW DELHI: Forecast of surplus sugar output in India and its efforts to increase exports to trim bulging domestic stocks will dominate discussions at this week's Asia International Sugar conference in Mumbai. Analysts and trade officials now think Indian exports will be around double last year's 1.7 million tonnes, although that would still be well below earlier forecasts of 6 million tonnes. World traders and analysts, sceptical of varying forecasts so far, will be eager for firm data from India, a key international player which consumes about 20 million tonnes a year and produced a record 28.4 million tonnes last year. At the start of the sugarcane crushing season in October, trade bodies said India's output would soar further to 32 million tonnes in the crop year to Sept. 2008, but in January Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said output would be 26 million tonnes. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has scaled down its forecast to 26.7 million tonnes from 27.5 million tonnes, Shanti Lal Jain, director general of the apex body of private sugar producers said. Surplus production in India, the world's second-biggest producer after Brazil, triggered a drive for exports which helped world prices sink to 9 cents a lb in mid-2007 from a 20-year high of 20 cents in 2006. Traders and analysts say heavy rains in the western state of Maharashtra and a dispute over prices paid to farmers in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh delayed crushing, lowering earlier output forecasts. International traders and analysts earlier estimated that India could export up to 6 million tonnes of sugar this year, while Australian analysts until recently believed exports of 4-5 million tonnes were likely. "I believe India's exports will touch 3.0-3.2 million tonnes this year and most of it will be raws," Jain said. 1 Apr, 2008, 2115 hrs IST, Source: REUTERS